Pendle: The Era of Stablecoin Expansion

By

José Sánchez

May 21, 2025


Pendle: The Era of Stablecoin Expansion

Publish Date: May 21, 2025

Authors: José Sánchez (Spartan Group), James Ho (Modular Capital)


Thesis Summary

Stablecoins are one of the largest and fastest growing segments in the crypto economy. Tether (USDT) crossed $150B+ of issuance, Circle (USDC) reached $60B+. Access to dollars on global 24/7 permissionless rails is one of the biggest unlocks of blockchains.

With President Trump’s election to office, the industry is increasingly establishing regulatory clarity to allow stablecoins to flourish. In particular, stablecoins that earn yield for holders (rather than just holding dollar value like USDT, USDC) have undergone rapid growth. In the past 18 months, yield-bearing stablecoins have grown from <$1.5B in issuance at the start of 2024, to $11B today (and from 1% to 4.5% share of all outstanding stablecoins).

We have entered the S-curve of the Era of Stablecoin Expansion.

Pendle’s platform, which enables the trading of yield, is one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular tailwind. Of the $11B in yield-bearing stablecoins in circulation, 30% ($3B+ in assets) resides in Pendle. This represents 1.3% of total stablecoin supply. Their protocol separates yield-earning assets into separate principal and yield tokens - in return enabling participants to either lock-in fixed yield, or speculate on yield fluctuations. 

Pendle’s platform operates at significant scale:

  • $4B Total Value Locked - of which 83% is from stable assets

  • ~$50B of lifetime trading volume

  • $35-40M annualized revenue (90-100bp monetization of TVL)

We project the next 18-24 months to undergo significant growth in this Era of Stablecoin Expansion. We expect stablecoin issuance to 2x to $500B, and yield-bearing stablecoins to capture 15% of this market with $75B in issuance (7X growth from $11B). 

We believe Pendle can capture 25% of all yield-bearing stablecoins, scale to $20B TVL, earn $200M in protocol fees. At 30x multiple, this translates to a $6B protocol outcome.


Market Overview

The traditional financial system operates in silos. There are nearly 100,000 different financial institutions all over the world, each of which have their custom, internal database that records entries, assets, and liabilities. When one deposits $10,000 of funds into a bank - that deposit is simply an entry in the system. In fact, prior to establishing FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), the $10,000 deposit is owed only by that specific bank, and not by the US Government. If that particular bank goes out of business - so goes those deposits. Today FDIC insures up to $250,000 per account, well above the amount of deposits for the typical participant, in order to ensure confidence in the financial system, and mitigate bank runs and failures.

The process of transferring funds is equally as cumbersome. In the US, there are standards including SWIFT, ACH which enable banks to communicate, share data, and process transfers among themselves. However, these are not 24/7, real-time, and permissionless systems. This is the reason why international wires can take several days. The wire goes through a network of several correspondent banks (as it is not possible for ~100,000 banks to all have integrations with each other). The legacy technology, manual processes, and operational overhead associated with this, results in high fees and long processing times.

Furthermore, it has been historically challenging for global participants to access dollar-based accounts and savings. Apart from ultra high net worth individuals, a citizen in a country like Australia, Japan, or developing country, cannot easily open a dollar-based bank account. These accounts are typically not offered by local banks (due to additional compliance, overhead costs), and US banks generally do not offer accounts to non-residents without a US address, SSN, or tax identification number.

Blockchains and stablecoins have solved these pain points:

  • Global Access - anyone with a crypto wallet is able to hold stablecoins (USDT, USDC) without undergoing complex onboarding, KYC process

  • Instant Settlement - stablecoins can be sent instantly and received within seconds from one wallet address to another vs several days for international wire

  • Low Fees - the cost of sending stablecoins on chains like Ethereum, Base, Solana range from a few cents to a few dollars - much cheaper than $25-100 wire fees that are typical

The dollars backing stablecoins such as USDC are held with trusted financial institutions. Circle issues monthly transparency reports. As of March 2025, of the $59B USDC in circulation, Circle held $22B (~38%) in US Treasury Securities, $31B (~59%) in Treasury Repo Agreements, and the remainder 10% with regulated financial institutions.

Source: Circle Transparency Report

Over the past 5 years, we’ve seen stablecoins scale from <$5B of issuance, to over $200B+ today by Circle and Tether. Notably, Tether has grown to be the 19th largest holder of US treasuries ($120B+) and 7th largest buyer of US Short-Term Treasuries in 2024 ($33B purchases). [Source: Cointelegraph]

While stablecoins solve the problem of storing value in dollars, and ease of transfer, historically they have not been useful as a yield-bearing asset. When one holds USDT, USDC, it is the issuer (Circle, Tether) that earns and keeps the interest income (thus earning yield on the float). With $200B+ of issuance, and Fed Funds Rate of ~4.3%, this translates to nearly $9B in forgone interest income by holders of stablecoins.

Source: Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Stablecoin Regulation

One major roadblock to stablecoins that passed on yield to holders has been the US regulatory landscape. Under Gary Gensler (SEC Chair from 2021-25), there was significant legal ambiguity as to whether yield-bearing stablecoins would be treated as securities under the Howey Test. In Congress, there was no regulatory framework passed around stablecoins and their treatment as a novel asset class.

Since Trump’s election to office, there have been notable developments that pave the way for this Era of Stablecoin Expansion. 

  • First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly endorsed stablecoins as "a new channel of strategic demand" that both expands dollar access globally and supports sustained demand for U.S. Treasury bills.

  • Secondly, in February 2025 the SEC (under new Chair Paul Atkins, appointed by Trump) approved Figure Market’s YLDS, a yield-bearing stablecoin, and the first one to register with the SEC. This paved the way forward for stablecoins around registration, disclosure requirements, and investor protections. This option was not available under the previous SEC Chair.

  • Finally, on May 19, 2025, the GENIUS Act passed the Senate with a 66-32 vote. This would establish a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, create a model for permitted issuers with federal overnight, and implement consumer protections around reserve backings, public disclosures, audited financials, etc. While this bill does not address yield-bearing stablecoins specifically (which would not quality as payment stablecoins), the alternative STABLE Act from the House was for more restrictive, and would have explicitly prohibited issuers from paying interest or yield to holders.

In the last 6 months, the US regulatory landscape has paved the way substantially for stablecoins as a growth market.


Pendle Overview

Pendle was founded in 2020 by TN Lee. Their protocol operates a marketplace that facilitates the trading and exchange of yield for any type of asset across BTC, ETH, stablecoins etc. They are one of the only scaled providers to do so, with $4B+ TVL, and nearly $50B of lifetime trading volume.

Pendle takes any asset that earns and accrues yield, and separates (“tokenizes”) this into two components - a principal token (PT) and yield token (YT). Each instance of creating a PT/YT pair comes with specific maturity dates. 

The principal token represents the principal portion of an underlying yield-bearing asset - and can be redeemed 1:1 for the underlying asset at maturity. Illustratively, say we have a $100,000 deposit of a yield-bearing stablecoin (USD-Test) earning daily interest at the Fed Funds Rate, split into PT and YT on Pendle with a maturity date 6 months from now. The Fed Funds Rate is currently 4.3%, but subject to change by decisions of the US Federal Reserve.

PT will be worth $100,000 at maturity. Taking into account Time Value of Money, this means the PT trades at some amount below the maturity value of $100,000 - to account for the opportunity cost of holding a given asset.

The YT is entitled to the yield generated from time of purchase through the maturity date. Over this 6 month period, the holder of YT would collect the daily interest payments. At maturity, the yield token declines to 0 in value, as there is no more yield to be collected.

The sum of PT and YT’s value must always be equivalent to the underlying asset’s value.

The separation of a yield-bearing asset into these two components, allows Pendle to operate a marketplace where participants can speculate on the future yield of assets. 

There are two use cases and sides of each Pendle transaction:

Participants to Lock In Fixed Yield

  • Market Participant A holds USD-Test, and does not want to experience the potential fluctuation in interest rates over this 6 month period through maturity. On Pendle’s platform, they deposit $100,000 of USD-Test (worth $1 per token), which is then split into 100,000 PT, and 100,000 YT units. Illustratively at the time of transacting, the PT is valued at $0.98 and the YT is valued at $0.02 (= $1 combined). 

  • Market Participant A now sells all their YT @ $0.02 each, and uses the funds to purchase PT @ $0.98. Their balance has now changed to 102,040.8 PT and 0 YT. The combined value is still $100,000. 

  • $0.98 of PT will grow into $1.00 of value in 6 months. This implies a fixed yield of 4.1% through maturity that Market Participant A has locked in, by utilizing Pendle’s platform.

Participants who Speculate on Yield

  • Market Participant B believes that the Fed Funds Rate will remain the same over the 6 month duration. They see that YT can be purchased for $0.02 which will collect the daily 4.3% interest payment for each $1 of USD-Test over the next 6 months. 

  • Market Participant B purchases $2,000 worth of YT at $0.02 each, holding a total of 100,000 YT units (i.e. the counterparty to Market Participant A). They earn the daily interest assigned to $100,000 of USD-Test which is around $11.78 daily. Over the next 6 months, the Fed Fund Rate does indeed remain at 4.3%.

  • Market Participant B collects a total of $2,150 of interest over the 6 month period. The YT is worth zero at expiry. Market Participant B invested $2,000 to receive back $2,150 in interest payments, representing a 15% annualized return. This yield is coming from the difference of the 4.3% realized rate (not guaranteed at the time of transacting), and the 4.1% fixed rate that Market Participant A locked in.

For a given asset, Pendle shows the implied “fixed yield” based on the market price of PT/YT assets. Importantly, the platform is generalized and applicable to any asset that generates yield over a period of time (e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL, Stablecoins), and yield derived from any source (e.g. interest, airdrops, staking, lending etc).

Source: Pendle Website, sUSDe PT fixed yield market with July 30, 2025 expiry


Pendle’s Stablecoin Dominance

Pendle’s rise to fame did not come from stablecoins, but rather airdrop farming with Eigenlayer (EIGEN).

During January to May 2024, Pendle’s usage exploded as Eigenlayer scaled to $20B of ETH deposits and as one of the most anticipated airdrops in crypto history. Because Eigenlayer was projected to TGE (token generation event) at a large valuation (eg $15-30B FDV), the airdrop was anticipated to generate a very large amount of yield for ETH deposits. 

Illustratively, market participants ran the following calculation. EIGEN listing at a $20B fully diluted value with 10% allocated to airdrop for ETH depositors (= $2B in value), over a 6 month duration, would translate to a 20% annualized yield contribution from the token airdrop, for the $20B ETH deposited to Eigenlayer. This would be layered on top of the underlying ETH staking yield of 3-5%, for a total of 23-25% expected yield.

Source: https://mirror.xyz/bravenewdefi.eth/zEPmfAQcvvyWFgm1MJyNLQ2I2WcdCCeE6RYz_OU7m8I

During this period, Pendle’s platform would allow ETH holders to lock in fixed yields in the 15-40%+ range, which was very attractive to many market participants. In a span of 6 months, Pendle’s TVL scaled 25-30X from ~$250M in December 2023, to nearly ~$7B at the peak in June 2024. 

Correspondingly, trading volumes exploded as well, scaling 100X+ from $60 M / month to $7 B / month at the peak.

Eigenlayer and Pendle TVL from January to June 2024

Source: Defi Llama 

While this activity scaled Pendle significantly and demonstrated its use case facilitating airdrop farming and speculation, the source of yield was not sustainable. As EIGEN concluded its airdrop campaign and the market cooled, Pendle’s activity declined significantly. Monthly trading volumes shrank 80%+ vs its peak (from $7B to $1B), and TVL declined 70% from ~$7B to $2B by September 2024.

Source: Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)


While airdrop farming continues to be a use case of Pendle’s platform, and what many users and investors associate the platform with, the primary use case of Pendle has shifted to stablecoins. Today stablecoins represent 83% of Pendle’s TVL, up from <20% last year.

Assets such as ETH historically contributed 80-90% of Pendle’s TVL (1H 2024) and have shrunk to <10% of TVL. Similarly, airdrop campaigns related to BTC assets (eg Solv, Universal, Lombard) also contribute <10% TVL.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Over the past 18 months, Pendle has 60X its TVL derived from stablecoins from ~$50M to $3.4B. This growth has coincided with the substantial growth of yield-bearing stablecoins. According to stablewatch.io, this market has grown 6X from $1.5B to $9B over the corresponding period.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: stablewatch.io


We have seen a substantial increase in the variety of assets issued, which include the following major players:

Pendle has been a significant beneficiary of this tailwind. As the entire market has scaled 8X from $1.4B to $11B over the past 18 months, Pendle continues to attract 30% of all yield-bearing assets issued on its platform with $3 B+ in TVL.

In most cases, these stables are earning yield between 5-12% range, making Pendle an attractive venue for participants to lock, hedge and speculate on the yield on stablecoins. As long as there is yield, a Pendle market is possible.

Source: Pendle Analytics, Stablewatch (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: Pendle Analytics, Stablewatch (as of May 19, 2025)


Importantly, Pendle has grown its market penetration from 6% to 23% of yield bearing stablecoins that exclude Ethena and Maker/Sky (the largest incumbents). New issuers represent the fastest growing segment of the market, growing from 13% share (April 2024) to 35% share (May 2025). 

We expect this to remain a key growth driver for Pendle going forward, as this market undergoes significant expansion.

Source: Defi Llama, Artemis (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Ethena USDe has been one of the largest contributors to Pendle’s stablecoin TVL growth representing ~75% of the $3.4B in stablecoin TVL. Ethena TVL with Pendle has grown >2x YoY, from $1.1B to $2.5B.

Despite Ethena’s rapid growth in this period, Pendle has significantly broadened its stablecoin TVL away from Ethena USDe. Other stablecoins on its platform have grown even faster, nearly 50X from ~$20M to $900M+ YoY.


Source: Coingecko, Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Contributions from non USDe pairs to Pendle’s stablecoin TVL has risen from 1% to 27% in the last 12 months. Some of the largest ones on its platform include Open Eden ($170M), Reserve ($150M), Level ($120M), Falcon ($70M), Angle ($65M), Usual ($50M), Aave GHO ($30M), Coinshift ($25M). 

Importantly, this growth has been diversified, with each non-USDe asset contributing only 1-5% of Pendle’s stablecoin TVL. This broad based growth is healthy for the long-term diversification and resilience of Pendle.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Since the beginning of 2024, unique stablecoins on Pendle contributing >$10M TVL have 4X+ from 4 to 18. In the last 3 months, new issuers crossing this $10M threshold include Open Eden, Syrup, Astherus, Falcon, Cygnus, Coinshift, Reservoir, Superform, USDX, and Sky.

Source: Pendle Analytics, Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Importantly, Pendle has captured a significant portion of issuance for many stables. At the high end they’ve captured 50%+ share (with Ethena, Reserve, Level, Open Eden), and at the low end 10-30% for longer-tail stables.

Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Long-term we believe the above trends demonstrates:

  1. Rapid growth of new cohort of yield-bearing stablecoins - which have expanded from 13% to 35% share of this category, in the past year

  2. Pendle’s ability to diversify away from Ethena USDe - which has declined as % of Pendle’s stable TVL mix from 99% to ~70% as the overall addressable market continues to explode

  3. Pendle’s role in capturing TVL from new issuers - averaging >20% of all the issuers excluding Ethena/Sky, and 40-50% of Ethena USDe, an important stat to show Pendle’s ability to grow with the entire yield-bearing stablecoin market

Pendle’s platform can support, integrate, and grow with all yield-bearing stablecoins that come to market. As a result, Pendle grows with index-like exposure to stablecoin issuance. This is the most important aspect of our Pendle investment thesis. We believe Pendle’s business transformation in this Era of Stablecoin Expansion is not well understood by the market.


Two Pronged Growth Flywheel

Pendle has a two pronged growth loop that drives its growth:

1) Customer Acquisition & Bootstrapping Engine

This is commonly referred to as the “point farming” use case for Pendle. Structurally, Pendle serves as a customer acquisition engine for a large number of on-chain protocols (e.g. Eigenlayer, Ethena, Babylon, Syrup) by creating a liquid marketplace that tranches risk for participants of an airdrop campaign. Typically each user has to undergo the cumbersome (and uncertain) process of completing specific criteria to receive the airdrop. Pendle enables users to bifurcate into those who want exposure to airdrop yield (YT) and those who want to lock in fixed yield (PT). By doing so, Pendle often serves as 1) point-of-entry for user discovery of new airdrop campaigns, and 2) top-of-funnel for capital to flow into new protocols.

Ethena is a very strong case study to demonstrate this behavior. Ethena leveraged Pendle as USDe launched in February 2024, to bootstrap initial usage and liquidity. In just 4 short months, Pendle enabled Ethena to scale from 0 to $3B+ issuance, with Pendle responsible for driving 50% of Ethena’s growth and activity.

Source: https://x.com/0xCheeezzyyyy/status/1922104872176124198 

Users who didn’t want to go through the complex work of directly interacting with Ethena, could deposit USDC on Pendle’s platform and lock in a fixed yield of 40-45% in PT markets. This enabled faster rate of capital flow and user discovery of Ethena.

Source: Redstone Blog

2) Dominant and Leading Yield Marketplace

After Ethena’s airdrop campaigns subsided, fixed yields for USDe / sUSDe have naturally declined. Today these markets only offer 7-10% fixed yield on Pendle. However Pendle continues to retain ~50% share of total Ethena issuance, contributing $2.3B to Pendle TVL. Because Pendle has previously onboarded substantial TVL as a Customer Acquisition and Bootstrapping Engine for Ethena protocol, it naturally retained and transitioned as the most liquid and default Yield Marketplace for ongoing USDe participants to transact. 

Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)

Many investors dislike the “airdrop farming” use case of Pendle’s platform. We believe this view misunderstands the design and structural advantage of Pendle’s model.

Pendle is a very important Customer Acquisition and Bootstrapping Engine for numerous on-chain protocols (from Eigenlayer, Ethena, Babylon, Syrup, Berachain). While this activity is highly volatile and post airdrop campaigns see significant churn, it drives free and efficient acquisition of a large number of protocols to Pendle’s platform and cement itself as the liquidity hub for yield markets. Historically, Pendle simply participated in markets where the churn rate was very high post-airdrop campaigns (e.g. Eigenlayer TVL declined 90%+) because the source of yield was simply not durable or attractive (e.g. 2-4% for ETH staking).

As we enter the Era of Stablecoin Expansion, we believe the yield-bearing stablecoin segment of Pendle’s business will undergo the fastest structural growth, drive sustainable source of yield, and high repeat activity on the platform. Over the last 12 months, Pendle has been consistently layering new cohorts of stablecoin issuers (e.g. Ethena, Syrup, Reserve, Usual, Angle, Falcon, Aave, Astherus, Open Eden). The initial point of contact starts with airdrop farming or incentive campaigns, and after transitions Pendle into the Leading Yield Marketplace as the bootstrapping subsides.

Driven by new cohorts that mature, the “Core TVL” base of Pendle’s expands substantially in percentage terms over time. Today, “Core” represents ~75% of Pendle TVL and ~50% of trading volumes. In the medium to long-term, Pendle will benefit from this mix shift and transition to a high quality, predictable, and durable franchise.

Source: Defi Llama, Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)

[1] “New Cohort” covers deposits that are still in their boot-strapping / airdrop-incentive phase. A pool keeps this tag until (i) its first PT maturity passes and the fixed yield (PT APR) falls to ≤ 10 %, or (ii) the protocol completes its Token Generation Event (TGE). Any balances left after either trigger are re-classified as “Core.”

[2] As such: EigenLayer LRTs were New Cohort until 30 Sep 2024 (Eigen TGE 1 Oct 2024); Ethena Seasons 1-3, Usual, Reserve and Berachain became Core after 31 Mar 2025; the newest issuers—USD0, LVLUSD, USDC.e, USDA, USDF and USDL—remain New Cohort, as they are still in the high-APR liquidity-mining stage.


Product Roadmap & Call Options

Pendle shipped several important product updates in 2025 for their existing product (V2):

  • Permissionless listing of assets on Pendle marketplace. In March 2025, Pendle took the first step to have the first externally listed asset on its platform. Official assets are under a section called “Pendle Prime” while opening up 3rd parties to list on Pendle without the team as a throttle / bottleneck on asset support. This is important for Pendle to support the full breadth of assets particularly in long-tail stablecoins.

  • Pendle as a key partner with Ethena and their new Converge blockchain. The EVM chain built by Ethena will integrate a native KYC capability to enable compliant access for institutions to Pendle’s yield products and platform. This enables Pendle to participate in the group of permissioned yield-bearing stablecoins (such as iUSDe by Ethena) as a growth driver.

  • Integration of PT-USDe asset support to Aave v3 protocol. This enables holders of the PT-USDe token with Pendle (earning fixed yield) to use as collateral for Aave, either for capital efficiency or to redeposit to lever-up yields. This integration enables Pendle to participate in the growth, ecosystem and capital access for the largest lending protocol on Ethereum. Since going live, nearly ~$1B in PT-USDe has been deposited into Aave (apart from the existing $500M on Morpho).

  • Cross Chain Expansion into Solana, Hyperliquid and TON. Today Pendle is primarily on EVM chains including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, and Sonic. Solana support is planned for Q3’25.

Furthermore, Pendle will be shipping Boros, a V3 product that enables the trading of crypto funding rates. There is ~$150B of daily open interest in crypto perpetuals markets, paying or earning funding. There is currently no reliable way to hedge funding rates at scale. Boros V3 enables Ethena (where their yield is derived from BTC, ETH, SOL funding rates) to create more predictability and control over its funding yield for USDe holders.

Source: Ethena Dashboard


Source: Pendle 2025 Roadmap


Revenue Model

Pendle generates two income streams:

  • TVL Yield: 5% take rate of the yield generated by assets on its platform. With $4B TVL and average yield of 8%, the annual yield is $320M from its TVL. 5% of this = $16M revenue

  • Trading Fees: In 2025 YTD, Pendle facilitated $12 B of volume through mid May. More recently they are generating $100M+ in average daily trading volume. This translates to $40B+ annualized volume. At 5bp average take rate = $20M revenue


Source: Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)

PENDLE earns $35-40M annualized revenue (90-100bp of TVL monetized of $4B TVL). Over the medium-term, we believe Pendle has the ability to significantly scale its revenue by 5-10X.

  • Stablecoin Growth - today there are ~$250 B of stablecoins in total (across USDT, USDC, and yield-bearing). Over the next 18-24 months we believe this can scale substantially to $500 B

  • Yield Bearing Penetration - yield-bearing stablecoins represent 4.5% share (up 4x from 1% from Jan 2024). We believe this share will expand to 15% as a secular tailwind

  • Pendle Platform Share - today Pendle captures 30% of all yield-bearing stablecoin supply. We expect them to maintain substantial market share, in the 25% range.

The above would translate to ~$75 B of yield-bearing stablecoins in issuance, with Pendle capturing $20B TVL. Monetizing this TVL at ~100bp would translate to $200M in annual protocol fees.


[1] Disclaimer: all forecasts and assumptions above are hypothetical

[2] For perspective, 100bp monetization of active assets (e.g. loan book, issuance) as protocol revenue is in-line with comps including Aave, Maple, Ethena, Euler, etc, and is also the current monetization Pendle has across yield and trading volume related fees

Pendle is a token-only project with no equity entity. Currently they distribute protocol revenue under a vote escrowed model. Participants lock their PENDLE tokens for a period of time (up to 4 years), in which they receive back “vePENDLE”, with a boost the longer the lock-time. Protocol fees are allocated directly to vePENDLE holders. 

Presently, this makes it difficult for liquid token funds to directly participate in the value accrual of PENDLE (e.g. via buyback, staking yield without lockup). However, 37% of Pendle’s circulating supply is locked via vePENDLE, which creates an indirect supply sink from participants who can take on illiquidity in return for receiving yield. Over the past 12 months, active vePENDLE holders have earned ~$21M in protocol fees and airdrops, translating to about ~40% APR.

Long-term we believe PENDLE can transition to a token buyback model, similar to several other leading protocols that include Maker/Sky, Aave, and Hyperliquid.



Conclusion

Stablecoins are one of the largest growth opportunities in crypto. Citi projects the stablecoin market will cross $1.6T by 2030. Over the next few years with favorable US regulatory landscape, we believe this market will increasingly be dominated by yield-bearing stablecoins as assets of choice for market participants.

Pendle’s platform is positioned to ride this growth inflection and steep part of the stablecoin S-curve. We believe the business to be misunderstood by investors as “airdrop farming” and “Ethena beta” when the reality is Pendle’s platform serves as a Customer Acquisition Engine, rapidly layering in new cohorts of protocols at no cost, and horizontally exposed to vast majority of yield-bearing stablecoins. 

As the leading Liquidity Hub for Yield, Pendle’s platform attracts a significant share of the yield-bearing stable market, and can succeed irrespective of which issuer dominates the market. 

Pendle is the pure play, indexed-way to invest behind this Era of Stablecoin Expansion.


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Pendle: The Era of Stablecoin Expansion

Publish Date: May 21, 2025

Authors: José Sánchez (Spartan Group), James Ho (Modular Capital)


Thesis Summary

Stablecoins are one of the largest and fastest growing segments in the crypto economy. Tether (USDT) crossed $150B+ of issuance, Circle (USDC) reached $60B+. Access to dollars on global 24/7 permissionless rails is one of the biggest unlocks of blockchains.

With President Trump’s election to office, the industry is increasingly establishing regulatory clarity to allow stablecoins to flourish. In particular, stablecoins that earn yield for holders (rather than just holding dollar value like USDT, USDC) have undergone rapid growth. In the past 18 months, yield-bearing stablecoins have grown from <$1.5B in issuance at the start of 2024, to $11B today (and from 1% to 4.5% share of all outstanding stablecoins).

We have entered the S-curve of the Era of Stablecoin Expansion.

Pendle’s platform, which enables the trading of yield, is one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular tailwind. Of the $11B in yield-bearing stablecoins in circulation, 30% ($3B+ in assets) resides in Pendle. This represents 1.3% of total stablecoin supply. Their protocol separates yield-earning assets into separate principal and yield tokens - in return enabling participants to either lock-in fixed yield, or speculate on yield fluctuations. 

Pendle’s platform operates at significant scale:

  • $4B Total Value Locked - of which 83% is from stable assets

  • ~$50B of lifetime trading volume

  • $35-40M annualized revenue (90-100bp monetization of TVL)

We project the next 18-24 months to undergo significant growth in this Era of Stablecoin Expansion. We expect stablecoin issuance to 2x to $500B, and yield-bearing stablecoins to capture 15% of this market with $75B in issuance (7X growth from $11B). 

We believe Pendle can capture 25% of all yield-bearing stablecoins, scale to $20B TVL, earn $200M in protocol fees. At 30x multiple, this translates to a $6B protocol outcome.


Market Overview

The traditional financial system operates in silos. There are nearly 100,000 different financial institutions all over the world, each of which have their custom, internal database that records entries, assets, and liabilities. When one deposits $10,000 of funds into a bank - that deposit is simply an entry in the system. In fact, prior to establishing FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), the $10,000 deposit is owed only by that specific bank, and not by the US Government. If that particular bank goes out of business - so goes those deposits. Today FDIC insures up to $250,000 per account, well above the amount of deposits for the typical participant, in order to ensure confidence in the financial system, and mitigate bank runs and failures.

The process of transferring funds is equally as cumbersome. In the US, there are standards including SWIFT, ACH which enable banks to communicate, share data, and process transfers among themselves. However, these are not 24/7, real-time, and permissionless systems. This is the reason why international wires can take several days. The wire goes through a network of several correspondent banks (as it is not possible for ~100,000 banks to all have integrations with each other). The legacy technology, manual processes, and operational overhead associated with this, results in high fees and long processing times.

Furthermore, it has been historically challenging for global participants to access dollar-based accounts and savings. Apart from ultra high net worth individuals, a citizen in a country like Australia, Japan, or developing country, cannot easily open a dollar-based bank account. These accounts are typically not offered by local banks (due to additional compliance, overhead costs), and US banks generally do not offer accounts to non-residents without a US address, SSN, or tax identification number.

Blockchains and stablecoins have solved these pain points:

  • Global Access - anyone with a crypto wallet is able to hold stablecoins (USDT, USDC) without undergoing complex onboarding, KYC process

  • Instant Settlement - stablecoins can be sent instantly and received within seconds from one wallet address to another vs several days for international wire

  • Low Fees - the cost of sending stablecoins on chains like Ethereum, Base, Solana range from a few cents to a few dollars - much cheaper than $25-100 wire fees that are typical

The dollars backing stablecoins such as USDC are held with trusted financial institutions. Circle issues monthly transparency reports. As of March 2025, of the $59B USDC in circulation, Circle held $22B (~38%) in US Treasury Securities, $31B (~59%) in Treasury Repo Agreements, and the remainder 10% with regulated financial institutions.

Source: Circle Transparency Report

Over the past 5 years, we’ve seen stablecoins scale from <$5B of issuance, to over $200B+ today by Circle and Tether. Notably, Tether has grown to be the 19th largest holder of US treasuries ($120B+) and 7th largest buyer of US Short-Term Treasuries in 2024 ($33B purchases). [Source: Cointelegraph]

While stablecoins solve the problem of storing value in dollars, and ease of transfer, historically they have not been useful as a yield-bearing asset. When one holds USDT, USDC, it is the issuer (Circle, Tether) that earns and keeps the interest income (thus earning yield on the float). With $200B+ of issuance, and Fed Funds Rate of ~4.3%, this translates to nearly $9B in forgone interest income by holders of stablecoins.

Source: Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Stablecoin Regulation

One major roadblock to stablecoins that passed on yield to holders has been the US regulatory landscape. Under Gary Gensler (SEC Chair from 2021-25), there was significant legal ambiguity as to whether yield-bearing stablecoins would be treated as securities under the Howey Test. In Congress, there was no regulatory framework passed around stablecoins and their treatment as a novel asset class.

Since Trump’s election to office, there have been notable developments that pave the way for this Era of Stablecoin Expansion. 

  • First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly endorsed stablecoins as "a new channel of strategic demand" that both expands dollar access globally and supports sustained demand for U.S. Treasury bills.

  • Secondly, in February 2025 the SEC (under new Chair Paul Atkins, appointed by Trump) approved Figure Market’s YLDS, a yield-bearing stablecoin, and the first one to register with the SEC. This paved the way forward for stablecoins around registration, disclosure requirements, and investor protections. This option was not available under the previous SEC Chair.

  • Finally, on May 19, 2025, the GENIUS Act passed the Senate with a 66-32 vote. This would establish a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, create a model for permitted issuers with federal overnight, and implement consumer protections around reserve backings, public disclosures, audited financials, etc. While this bill does not address yield-bearing stablecoins specifically (which would not quality as payment stablecoins), the alternative STABLE Act from the House was for more restrictive, and would have explicitly prohibited issuers from paying interest or yield to holders.

In the last 6 months, the US regulatory landscape has paved the way substantially for stablecoins as a growth market.


Pendle Overview

Pendle was founded in 2020 by TN Lee. Their protocol operates a marketplace that facilitates the trading and exchange of yield for any type of asset across BTC, ETH, stablecoins etc. They are one of the only scaled providers to do so, with $4B+ TVL, and nearly $50B of lifetime trading volume.

Pendle takes any asset that earns and accrues yield, and separates (“tokenizes”) this into two components - a principal token (PT) and yield token (YT). Each instance of creating a PT/YT pair comes with specific maturity dates. 

The principal token represents the principal portion of an underlying yield-bearing asset - and can be redeemed 1:1 for the underlying asset at maturity. Illustratively, say we have a $100,000 deposit of a yield-bearing stablecoin (USD-Test) earning daily interest at the Fed Funds Rate, split into PT and YT on Pendle with a maturity date 6 months from now. The Fed Funds Rate is currently 4.3%, but subject to change by decisions of the US Federal Reserve.

PT will be worth $100,000 at maturity. Taking into account Time Value of Money, this means the PT trades at some amount below the maturity value of $100,000 - to account for the opportunity cost of holding a given asset.

The YT is entitled to the yield generated from time of purchase through the maturity date. Over this 6 month period, the holder of YT would collect the daily interest payments. At maturity, the yield token declines to 0 in value, as there is no more yield to be collected.

The sum of PT and YT’s value must always be equivalent to the underlying asset’s value.

The separation of a yield-bearing asset into these two components, allows Pendle to operate a marketplace where participants can speculate on the future yield of assets. 

There are two use cases and sides of each Pendle transaction:

Participants to Lock In Fixed Yield

  • Market Participant A holds USD-Test, and does not want to experience the potential fluctuation in interest rates over this 6 month period through maturity. On Pendle’s platform, they deposit $100,000 of USD-Test (worth $1 per token), which is then split into 100,000 PT, and 100,000 YT units. Illustratively at the time of transacting, the PT is valued at $0.98 and the YT is valued at $0.02 (= $1 combined). 

  • Market Participant A now sells all their YT @ $0.02 each, and uses the funds to purchase PT @ $0.98. Their balance has now changed to 102,040.8 PT and 0 YT. The combined value is still $100,000. 

  • $0.98 of PT will grow into $1.00 of value in 6 months. This implies a fixed yield of 4.1% through maturity that Market Participant A has locked in, by utilizing Pendle’s platform.

Participants who Speculate on Yield

  • Market Participant B believes that the Fed Funds Rate will remain the same over the 6 month duration. They see that YT can be purchased for $0.02 which will collect the daily 4.3% interest payment for each $1 of USD-Test over the next 6 months. 

  • Market Participant B purchases $2,000 worth of YT at $0.02 each, holding a total of 100,000 YT units (i.e. the counterparty to Market Participant A). They earn the daily interest assigned to $100,000 of USD-Test which is around $11.78 daily. Over the next 6 months, the Fed Fund Rate does indeed remain at 4.3%.

  • Market Participant B collects a total of $2,150 of interest over the 6 month period. The YT is worth zero at expiry. Market Participant B invested $2,000 to receive back $2,150 in interest payments, representing a 15% annualized return. This yield is coming from the difference of the 4.3% realized rate (not guaranteed at the time of transacting), and the 4.1% fixed rate that Market Participant A locked in.

For a given asset, Pendle shows the implied “fixed yield” based on the market price of PT/YT assets. Importantly, the platform is generalized and applicable to any asset that generates yield over a period of time (e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL, Stablecoins), and yield derived from any source (e.g. interest, airdrops, staking, lending etc).

Source: Pendle Website, sUSDe PT fixed yield market with July 30, 2025 expiry


Pendle’s Stablecoin Dominance

Pendle’s rise to fame did not come from stablecoins, but rather airdrop farming with Eigenlayer (EIGEN).

During January to May 2024, Pendle’s usage exploded as Eigenlayer scaled to $20B of ETH deposits and as one of the most anticipated airdrops in crypto history. Because Eigenlayer was projected to TGE (token generation event) at a large valuation (eg $15-30B FDV), the airdrop was anticipated to generate a very large amount of yield for ETH deposits. 

Illustratively, market participants ran the following calculation. EIGEN listing at a $20B fully diluted value with 10% allocated to airdrop for ETH depositors (= $2B in value), over a 6 month duration, would translate to a 20% annualized yield contribution from the token airdrop, for the $20B ETH deposited to Eigenlayer. This would be layered on top of the underlying ETH staking yield of 3-5%, for a total of 23-25% expected yield.

Source: https://mirror.xyz/bravenewdefi.eth/zEPmfAQcvvyWFgm1MJyNLQ2I2WcdCCeE6RYz_OU7m8I

During this period, Pendle’s platform would allow ETH holders to lock in fixed yields in the 15-40%+ range, which was very attractive to many market participants. In a span of 6 months, Pendle’s TVL scaled 25-30X from ~$250M in December 2023, to nearly ~$7B at the peak in June 2024. 

Correspondingly, trading volumes exploded as well, scaling 100X+ from $60 M / month to $7 B / month at the peak.

Eigenlayer and Pendle TVL from January to June 2024

Source: Defi Llama 

While this activity scaled Pendle significantly and demonstrated its use case facilitating airdrop farming and speculation, the source of yield was not sustainable. As EIGEN concluded its airdrop campaign and the market cooled, Pendle’s activity declined significantly. Monthly trading volumes shrank 80%+ vs its peak (from $7B to $1B), and TVL declined 70% from ~$7B to $2B by September 2024.

Source: Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)


While airdrop farming continues to be a use case of Pendle’s platform, and what many users and investors associate the platform with, the primary use case of Pendle has shifted to stablecoins. Today stablecoins represent 83% of Pendle’s TVL, up from <20% last year.

Assets such as ETH historically contributed 80-90% of Pendle’s TVL (1H 2024) and have shrunk to <10% of TVL. Similarly, airdrop campaigns related to BTC assets (eg Solv, Universal, Lombard) also contribute <10% TVL.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Over the past 18 months, Pendle has 60X its TVL derived from stablecoins from ~$50M to $3.4B. This growth has coincided with the substantial growth of yield-bearing stablecoins. According to stablewatch.io, this market has grown 6X from $1.5B to $9B over the corresponding period.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: stablewatch.io


We have seen a substantial increase in the variety of assets issued, which include the following major players:

Pendle has been a significant beneficiary of this tailwind. As the entire market has scaled 8X from $1.4B to $11B over the past 18 months, Pendle continues to attract 30% of all yield-bearing assets issued on its platform with $3 B+ in TVL.

In most cases, these stables are earning yield between 5-12% range, making Pendle an attractive venue for participants to lock, hedge and speculate on the yield on stablecoins. As long as there is yield, a Pendle market is possible.

Source: Pendle Analytics, Stablewatch (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: Pendle Analytics, Stablewatch (as of May 19, 2025)


Importantly, Pendle has grown its market penetration from 6% to 23% of yield bearing stablecoins that exclude Ethena and Maker/Sky (the largest incumbents). New issuers represent the fastest growing segment of the market, growing from 13% share (April 2024) to 35% share (May 2025). 

We expect this to remain a key growth driver for Pendle going forward, as this market undergoes significant expansion.

Source: Defi Llama, Artemis (as of May 19, 2025)


Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Ethena USDe has been one of the largest contributors to Pendle’s stablecoin TVL growth representing ~75% of the $3.4B in stablecoin TVL. Ethena TVL with Pendle has grown >2x YoY, from $1.1B to $2.5B.

Despite Ethena’s rapid growth in this period, Pendle has significantly broadened its stablecoin TVL away from Ethena USDe. Other stablecoins on its platform have grown even faster, nearly 50X from ~$20M to $900M+ YoY.


Source: Coingecko, Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Contributions from non USDe pairs to Pendle’s stablecoin TVL has risen from 1% to 27% in the last 12 months. Some of the largest ones on its platform include Open Eden ($170M), Reserve ($150M), Level ($120M), Falcon ($70M), Angle ($65M), Usual ($50M), Aave GHO ($30M), Coinshift ($25M). 

Importantly, this growth has been diversified, with each non-USDe asset contributing only 1-5% of Pendle’s stablecoin TVL. This broad based growth is healthy for the long-term diversification and resilience of Pendle.

Source: Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Since the beginning of 2024, unique stablecoins on Pendle contributing >$10M TVL have 4X+ from 4 to 18. In the last 3 months, new issuers crossing this $10M threshold include Open Eden, Syrup, Astherus, Falcon, Cygnus, Coinshift, Reservoir, Superform, USDX, and Sky.

Source: Pendle Analytics, Defi Llama (as of May 19, 2025)


Importantly, Pendle has captured a significant portion of issuance for many stables. At the high end they’ve captured 50%+ share (with Ethena, Reserve, Level, Open Eden), and at the low end 10-30% for longer-tail stables.

Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)


Long-term we believe the above trends demonstrates:

  1. Rapid growth of new cohort of yield-bearing stablecoins - which have expanded from 13% to 35% share of this category, in the past year

  2. Pendle’s ability to diversify away from Ethena USDe - which has declined as % of Pendle’s stable TVL mix from 99% to ~70% as the overall addressable market continues to explode

  3. Pendle’s role in capturing TVL from new issuers - averaging >20% of all the issuers excluding Ethena/Sky, and 40-50% of Ethena USDe, an important stat to show Pendle’s ability to grow with the entire yield-bearing stablecoin market

Pendle’s platform can support, integrate, and grow with all yield-bearing stablecoins that come to market. As a result, Pendle grows with index-like exposure to stablecoin issuance. This is the most important aspect of our Pendle investment thesis. We believe Pendle’s business transformation in this Era of Stablecoin Expansion is not well understood by the market.


Two Pronged Growth Flywheel

Pendle has a two pronged growth loop that drives its growth:

1) Customer Acquisition & Bootstrapping Engine

This is commonly referred to as the “point farming” use case for Pendle. Structurally, Pendle serves as a customer acquisition engine for a large number of on-chain protocols (e.g. Eigenlayer, Ethena, Babylon, Syrup) by creating a liquid marketplace that tranches risk for participants of an airdrop campaign. Typically each user has to undergo the cumbersome (and uncertain) process of completing specific criteria to receive the airdrop. Pendle enables users to bifurcate into those who want exposure to airdrop yield (YT) and those who want to lock in fixed yield (PT). By doing so, Pendle often serves as 1) point-of-entry for user discovery of new airdrop campaigns, and 2) top-of-funnel for capital to flow into new protocols.

Ethena is a very strong case study to demonstrate this behavior. Ethena leveraged Pendle as USDe launched in February 2024, to bootstrap initial usage and liquidity. In just 4 short months, Pendle enabled Ethena to scale from 0 to $3B+ issuance, with Pendle responsible for driving 50% of Ethena’s growth and activity.

Source: https://x.com/0xCheeezzyyyy/status/1922104872176124198 

Users who didn’t want to go through the complex work of directly interacting with Ethena, could deposit USDC on Pendle’s platform and lock in a fixed yield of 40-45% in PT markets. This enabled faster rate of capital flow and user discovery of Ethena.

Source: Redstone Blog

2) Dominant and Leading Yield Marketplace

After Ethena’s airdrop campaigns subsided, fixed yields for USDe / sUSDe have naturally declined. Today these markets only offer 7-10% fixed yield on Pendle. However Pendle continues to retain ~50% share of total Ethena issuance, contributing $2.3B to Pendle TVL. Because Pendle has previously onboarded substantial TVL as a Customer Acquisition and Bootstrapping Engine for Ethena protocol, it naturally retained and transitioned as the most liquid and default Yield Marketplace for ongoing USDe participants to transact. 

Source: Defi Llama, Coingecko (as of May 19, 2025)

Many investors dislike the “airdrop farming” use case of Pendle’s platform. We believe this view misunderstands the design and structural advantage of Pendle’s model.

Pendle is a very important Customer Acquisition and Bootstrapping Engine for numerous on-chain protocols (from Eigenlayer, Ethena, Babylon, Syrup, Berachain). While this activity is highly volatile and post airdrop campaigns see significant churn, it drives free and efficient acquisition of a large number of protocols to Pendle’s platform and cement itself as the liquidity hub for yield markets. Historically, Pendle simply participated in markets where the churn rate was very high post-airdrop campaigns (e.g. Eigenlayer TVL declined 90%+) because the source of yield was simply not durable or attractive (e.g. 2-4% for ETH staking).

As we enter the Era of Stablecoin Expansion, we believe the yield-bearing stablecoin segment of Pendle’s business will undergo the fastest structural growth, drive sustainable source of yield, and high repeat activity on the platform. Over the last 12 months, Pendle has been consistently layering new cohorts of stablecoin issuers (e.g. Ethena, Syrup, Reserve, Usual, Angle, Falcon, Aave, Astherus, Open Eden). The initial point of contact starts with airdrop farming or incentive campaigns, and after transitions Pendle into the Leading Yield Marketplace as the bootstrapping subsides.

Driven by new cohorts that mature, the “Core TVL” base of Pendle’s expands substantially in percentage terms over time. Today, “Core” represents ~75% of Pendle TVL and ~50% of trading volumes. In the medium to long-term, Pendle will benefit from this mix shift and transition to a high quality, predictable, and durable franchise.

Source: Defi Llama, Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)

[1] “New Cohort” covers deposits that are still in their boot-strapping / airdrop-incentive phase. A pool keeps this tag until (i) its first PT maturity passes and the fixed yield (PT APR) falls to ≤ 10 %, or (ii) the protocol completes its Token Generation Event (TGE). Any balances left after either trigger are re-classified as “Core.”

[2] As such: EigenLayer LRTs were New Cohort until 30 Sep 2024 (Eigen TGE 1 Oct 2024); Ethena Seasons 1-3, Usual, Reserve and Berachain became Core after 31 Mar 2025; the newest issuers—USD0, LVLUSD, USDC.e, USDA, USDF and USDL—remain New Cohort, as they are still in the high-APR liquidity-mining stage.


Product Roadmap & Call Options

Pendle shipped several important product updates in 2025 for their existing product (V2):

  • Permissionless listing of assets on Pendle marketplace. In March 2025, Pendle took the first step to have the first externally listed asset on its platform. Official assets are under a section called “Pendle Prime” while opening up 3rd parties to list on Pendle without the team as a throttle / bottleneck on asset support. This is important for Pendle to support the full breadth of assets particularly in long-tail stablecoins.

  • Pendle as a key partner with Ethena and their new Converge blockchain. The EVM chain built by Ethena will integrate a native KYC capability to enable compliant access for institutions to Pendle’s yield products and platform. This enables Pendle to participate in the group of permissioned yield-bearing stablecoins (such as iUSDe by Ethena) as a growth driver.

  • Integration of PT-USDe asset support to Aave v3 protocol. This enables holders of the PT-USDe token with Pendle (earning fixed yield) to use as collateral for Aave, either for capital efficiency or to redeposit to lever-up yields. This integration enables Pendle to participate in the growth, ecosystem and capital access for the largest lending protocol on Ethereum. Since going live, nearly ~$1B in PT-USDe has been deposited into Aave (apart from the existing $500M on Morpho).

  • Cross Chain Expansion into Solana, Hyperliquid and TON. Today Pendle is primarily on EVM chains including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, and Sonic. Solana support is planned for Q3’25.

Furthermore, Pendle will be shipping Boros, a V3 product that enables the trading of crypto funding rates. There is ~$150B of daily open interest in crypto perpetuals markets, paying or earning funding. There is currently no reliable way to hedge funding rates at scale. Boros V3 enables Ethena (where their yield is derived from BTC, ETH, SOL funding rates) to create more predictability and control over its funding yield for USDe holders.

Source: Ethena Dashboard


Source: Pendle 2025 Roadmap


Revenue Model

Pendle generates two income streams:

  • TVL Yield: 5% take rate of the yield generated by assets on its platform. With $4B TVL and average yield of 8%, the annual yield is $320M from its TVL. 5% of this = $16M revenue

  • Trading Fees: In 2025 YTD, Pendle facilitated $12 B of volume through mid May. More recently they are generating $100M+ in average daily trading volume. This translates to $40B+ annualized volume. At 5bp average take rate = $20M revenue


Source: Pendle Analytics (as of May 19, 2025)

PENDLE earns $35-40M annualized revenue (90-100bp of TVL monetized of $4B TVL). Over the medium-term, we believe Pendle has the ability to significantly scale its revenue by 5-10X.

  • Stablecoin Growth - today there are ~$250 B of stablecoins in total (across USDT, USDC, and yield-bearing). Over the next 18-24 months we believe this can scale substantially to $500 B

  • Yield Bearing Penetration - yield-bearing stablecoins represent 4.5% share (up 4x from 1% from Jan 2024). We believe this share will expand to 15% as a secular tailwind

  • Pendle Platform Share - today Pendle captures 30% of all yield-bearing stablecoin supply. We expect them to maintain substantial market share, in the 25% range.

The above would translate to ~$75 B of yield-bearing stablecoins in issuance, with Pendle capturing $20B TVL. Monetizing this TVL at ~100bp would translate to $200M in annual protocol fees.


[1] Disclaimer: all forecasts and assumptions above are hypothetical

[2] For perspective, 100bp monetization of active assets (e.g. loan book, issuance) as protocol revenue is in-line with comps including Aave, Maple, Ethena, Euler, etc, and is also the current monetization Pendle has across yield and trading volume related fees

Pendle is a token-only project with no equity entity. Currently they distribute protocol revenue under a vote escrowed model. Participants lock their PENDLE tokens for a period of time (up to 4 years), in which they receive back “vePENDLE”, with a boost the longer the lock-time. Protocol fees are allocated directly to vePENDLE holders. 

Presently, this makes it difficult for liquid token funds to directly participate in the value accrual of PENDLE (e.g. via buyback, staking yield without lockup). However, 37% of Pendle’s circulating supply is locked via vePENDLE, which creates an indirect supply sink from participants who can take on illiquidity in return for receiving yield. Over the past 12 months, active vePENDLE holders have earned ~$21M in protocol fees and airdrops, translating to about ~40% APR.

Long-term we believe PENDLE can transition to a token buyback model, similar to several other leading protocols that include Maker/Sky, Aave, and Hyperliquid.



Conclusion

Stablecoins are one of the largest growth opportunities in crypto. Citi projects the stablecoin market will cross $1.6T by 2030. Over the next few years with favorable US regulatory landscape, we believe this market will increasingly be dominated by yield-bearing stablecoins as assets of choice for market participants.

Pendle’s platform is positioned to ride this growth inflection and steep part of the stablecoin S-curve. We believe the business to be misunderstood by investors as “airdrop farming” and “Ethena beta” when the reality is Pendle’s platform serves as a Customer Acquisition Engine, rapidly layering in new cohorts of protocols at no cost, and horizontally exposed to vast majority of yield-bearing stablecoins. 

As the leading Liquidity Hub for Yield, Pendle’s platform attracts a significant share of the yield-bearing stable market, and can succeed irrespective of which issuer dominates the market. 

Pendle is the pure play, indexed-way to invest behind this Era of Stablecoin Expansion.


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